BRUSSELS: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany increased 0.9 percent in June to 104.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in May, and a 2.4 percent increase in April.
At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in June, remaining at 103.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in May, and a 0.4 percent increase in April.
The Conference Board LEI for Germany has been increasing for more than a year and it is now 17.1 percent above its most recent trough in March 2009. Its six-month growth rate has picked up lately but remains well below its September 2009 peak. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany has been on a rising trend for more than a year, and its six-month growth rate is near its most recent high reached in March 2007. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue expanding in the near term.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:
New Orders, Investment Goods
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Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
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Change in Inventories
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Gross Enterprise and Property Income
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Stock Prices
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New Orders, Residential Construction
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Consumer Confidence Index
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For more information including full press release and technical notes:
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http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4
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For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
Summary Table of Composite Indexes
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| 2010
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| 6-month
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| Apr
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| May
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| Jun
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| Dec to Jun
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Leading Economic Index (LEI)
| 103.0
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| 103.4
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| 104.3
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Percent Change
| 2.4
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| 0.4
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| 0.9
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| 6.1
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Diffusion
| 92.9
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| 50.0
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| 71.4
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| 85.7
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Coincident Economic Index (CEI)
| 103.3
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| 103.9
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| 103.9
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Percent Change
| 0.4
| r
| 0.6
| r
| 0.0
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| 1.6
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Diffusion
| 75.0
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| 100.0
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| 50.0
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| 100.0
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n.a. Not available
| p Preliminary
| r Revised
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Indexes equal 100 in 2004
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Source: The Conference Board
| All Rights Reserved
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SOURCE The Conference Board
