Rajiv Dogra | 13 Jun, 2013
Every time there is a prime ministerial visit to East or
Southeast Asia, we dust up the two-decade-old placards and begin to wave them.
The fading lettering on them proclaims that India is 'Looking East.' But as a
nation, our attention span is limited. Therefore, the moment the visit is over
we climb up tiredly into the attic to deposit the placards and to keep them
there till the next visit.
We spend the interregnum understanding the next move by Pakistan or China.
Sometimes, the US and even Russia sneak into our national radar. But,
otherwise, we are so preoccupied with ourselves and our constantly breaking
stories that the world hardly figures in our view. Perhaps this is good.
Perhaps, this keeps the world guessing about our grand strategy.
In one such recent attempt timed with the prime minister's Japan visit, an
Australian academic Sandy Gordon suggested, "India's Look East policy was
initiated out of failure: the failure of India's Cold War strategy of 'playing
both ends against the middle' while at the same time attempting to adopt a
pro-Soviet 'tilt'; and the failure of India's command economy, which by 1990
had managed to command only 0.4 per cent of world trade - insufficient to
cushion India from the 1989-90 oil shock. While the collapse of the Soviet
Union was no fault of India, it left New Delhi searching for an alternative set
of economic and strategic approaches. The 'Look East' policy seemed to fit both
needs."
Gordon may have his reasons for the assertion, "India's Look East policy
was initiated out of failure..." but had he cared to look deeper into
history his conclusion may have been different. If he had travelled to Bali or
to Angkor Vat he may have been reminded of ancient India's intimate Look East
connections; links that date back to the 9th century and based largely on trade
and peaceful population shift.
But why make him go back all the way? If he had revisited the time of the World
War II, he would certainly have heard the war cries of Subhas Chandra Bose's
Indian National Army (INA) that took up arms on the side of the Japanese army.
Some recent commentaries have described that as one of the toughest challenges
that the British faced during the war. Is it a mere coincidence that the INA's
battles were fought in the northeast and further down in the areas that
constitute much of what might be covered now under our Look East criteria?
In fact we don't even remind the Japanese about the bold stand taken in their
favour at the War Crimes Tribunal by Justice Radha Binod Pal. But then, reminding
others goes against our grain. Had that been otherwise, we would have built
permanent bridges with the East through our Buddhist connection. After all
Rome, for all practical purposes, has become synonymous with Christianity. So
too are the examples from elsewhere. Are we then simply self-effacing, or plain
and simple deficient in the follow through?
What happens, for example, to the declarations of doubling or tripling trade
that are routinely made during the pime ministerial visits? Are they implemented
just as vigorously? Had that been the case, and if they were seriously followed
through, we would surely have left China far behind as the biggest trading
nation in the world. Whereas the fact is that we are running a current account
deficit that may lash us against the rocks of IMF scrutiny of the type we faced
in 1991. Basically, our problem is red tape coated with inertia, a desire that
the fruit must somehow fall into our laps.
But what about our latest claims: is the prognosis rosier after the recent
visit by the prime minister? Alas, it may not be so. If the lynchpin of our
Look East policy is the connectivity through the northeast, then we are talking
of three possible linkages by air, road and rail. None among them is functional
as yet between India's northeast and the eastern part of Asia. Nor is it likely
to be so in the foreseeable future.
The uncomfortable fact is the dismal state of infrastructure in the northeast
itself. The airports there are hardly world class; their connectivity within
the region and with the rest of the country is just functional. The current
state of its roads can barely sustain the passenger traffic; how can its
potholes survive the pressure of heavy traffic? And the rail network largely
remains as it was during the British times.
Still, if we were to somehow transform this infrastructure into one capable of
moving millions of tonnes of cargo, will it mean that we have finally delivered
on our Look East promise? Sadly, that will just be a beginning. To give Look East
real meaning, there has to be a vast traffic of goods both ways. As of now, we
do not have even a single major industrial unit in the area. Unless that
happens, and till major industries come up in the northeast, we would have very
little to export. We will merely be making promises during high-level visits.
And over time, the intended audience may just stop taking us seriously.
Can't we then take a cue from our ancient success? Then, we were able to create
multiple linkages; people, trade and ideas travelled impressively. That traffic
was largely sea-borne, carrying Buddhism, kingdoms and populations to Southeast
Asia. Those links endured. If our ancients could do it, why can't the present
generations? But internal resolve, instead of the periodically dusted off
placards, will be needed for that.