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Post-COVID, India to recover faster than advanced nations
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SME Times News Bureau | 04 Apr, 2020
Once the Covid-19 pandemic ebbs, the course of economic recovery in
India will be smoother and faster than that of many advanced countries,
according to KPMG.
UNCTAD in its latest report on Covid-19 impact
on developing countries has predicted that the major economies to be
least exposed to recession would be China and India.
KPMG has
said that steps taken to prevent the spread of the virus, such as the
lockdown, have brought the economic activity to a standstill and could
impact both consumption and investment.
The abrupt halt in urban
activity could lead to a steep fall in consumption of non-essential
goods. In addition, around 37 per cent of salaried employees in urban
India are informal workers who will face uncertain income following the
stall of urban activity.
KPMG has prepared three scenarios that
can play out for the Indian economy. If there is quick retraction across
the world, including India, by end April to mid May, India's GDP growth
for 2020-21 may be in the range of 5.3 per cent to 5.7 per cent.
The
second scenario assumes that while India is able to control Covid-19
spread, there is a significant global recession. In this scenario,
India's growth will fall to 4-4.5 per cent.
In the third
scenario, if there is proliferation within India and lockdowns get
extended coupled with a global recession, it will be a double whammy for
the Indian economy. India's growth will fall under 3 per cent in this
scenario as a prolonged slowdown would exacerbate economic troubles.
However,
experts also pointed out that to show higher GDP growth in revised
numbers recently, the government has reduced the base in the previous
year.
In that case, the government should have revised and
lowered GDP growth for previous year. So, projections are taking place
as per official numbers. It is now not the question whether government
numbers are right. The historical government numbers are incorrect now,
experts said.
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
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66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
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87.50
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84.65 |
Euro
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78.25
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75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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