Near-term export outlook of India is fragile due to the ongoing tariff war between the two largest economies of the world, said a new report.

"The near term outlook for trade looks fragile with President Donald Trump terminating a beneficial trade treatment accorded to India for a developing nation. Also, the recent imposition of retaliatory tariffs by Indian economy to US decision comes at a time when global economic growth rate is projected to slow down," the Centrum report said.

"Both the actions add further woes to India's trade position that is already struggling against the prevalent headwinds from slowing global demand," it added.

Merchandise exports rose 3.93 percent on a year-on-year basis in May to $29.99 billion from $28.86 billion reported for the corresponding month of last year, official data showed on Friday.

However, trade deficit remained elevated in May and widened to $15.36 billion from $15.33 billion in April and a comparable $14.62 billion the same month last year.


Crisil said it believes the withdrawal of benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) from June 5, as announced by the US earlier, will have limited impact on India's overall export trade.

"In calendar 2018, India's goods and services trade with the US totalled $142.1 billion of which, exports were $83.2 billion. Within exports, that under GSP is estimated to be 7.5-7.8 per cent, which translates into $260 million of levies saved, tantamount to a 4 per cent duty benefit," Crisil said.

It added that the gems and jewellery sector could be moderately impacted by the withdrawal of GSP, pharmaceuticals and textiles and apparel would be relatively unscathed.